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Experts have calculated that there is a 20% chance the world will hit 1.5C warming within the next 5 years. Earth has already reached 1C warming and there is now no chance of lowering this number until 2024. It is also possible that it is too late to avoid 1.5C warming, but with immediate and radical climate action, we can abstain from reaching 2C, which would be disastrous for every ecosystem and species on Earth. The Paris Agreement rests on keeping warming well-below 2C and preferably staying at 1.5C to avoid a climate catastrophe.
Apart from establishing that we will likely hit 1.5C before the end of 2025, the experts also concluded that storm occurrences over the Atlantic Ocean will increase and the Arctic will experience severe warming. Parts of South America, Southern Africa and Australia will also be much drier this year than in 2019.
The experts' study took both natural variations and human activities into account when they established their findings, making the margin of error very small.